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Concrete investment ideas

voytechs

Member
Joined
Sep 6, 2007
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We've talked about a bunch of stuff over past few months, lets discuss some specifics and concrete STOCK symbols etc.

Lets come up with a plan of: 25% times 4 redistribution of all my eggs: 25% foreign currency, 25% agricultural commodities, 25% silver/gold and 25% oil. In addition, also purchasing a bit of physical silver from salary on monthly basis.

1) Whats the best stock (not physical bars) to purchase for gold and silver: GLD and SLV? Or would a mining company stock be as good.


2) Any suggestions on agricultural commodities to buy: corn, wheat, soybeans? We need symbols.

#1 and #2 need to purchase those through normal exchange so they can't be through some obscure market, plus may be tell the pension manager exactly what to buy, the person can't do it himself/herself. So can't assume this is private money in the bank, could be a pension or a 401K. Lots of people have those.

3) I guess Oil is the best energy investment but what about heating oil or energy companies.


4) What about changing some US $ cash into Swiss franks at the local bank. This kind of holding is very liquid, can be turned into US $ in a single day by simply depositing it at the local bank.

Can Schwab or Etrade or other local broker convert dollars into foreign currency? We can't physically touch pension money or 401K and it has to be done through a broker. If someone is converting their saving account, then they can do it themselves at a local bank.

In addition we should all be buying physical silver bars from salary as extra funds become available. Of course, don't put yourself into debt. Don't try and leverage this, NO DEBT!!!!

Lastly, if pension or 401K is involved, where to roll it over. Is schwab or e-trade good enough, or should we all just give Peter Schiff's company the business and be done with it. He certainly is able to invest in local and foreign markets, commodities, etc...
 
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Concrete stocks?

I believe he was going for the "rock solid" motif. I personally do not believe there is any such thing as rock solid, but the goal of approaching this is everyone's goal I suppose. Going to try to comment with my opinion on these line items now...
 
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1) Whats the best stock (not physical bars) to purchase for gold and silver: GLD and SLV? Or would a mining company stock be as good.

One mining stock would not be as good as the safety of buying GLD since one mining stock could go bankrupt and go to zero, and GLD will definitely not. LONG TERM, I would rather be in a gold miner etf like GDX than just one miner. If I really had to choose just one miner, I would choose ABX. I own it, Ron Paul owns it, and any serious gold miner investor owns it because Barrick is the leader and is probably not going to zero any time soon. In summary, if I had to make one recommendation for one ticker symbol int he gold arena I would have to recommend GDX.

Top 10 GDX holdings:

qodj49.jpg


Snapshot of RP's gold miner holdings (Source: opensecrets.org):

6z6783.jpg


2) Any suggestions on agricultural commodities to buy: corn, wheat, soybeans? We need symbols.

DBA - corn, soybeans, sugar and wheat.

#1 and #2 need to purchase those through normal exchange so they can't be through some obscure market, plus may be tell the pension manager exactly what to buy, the person can't do it himself/herself. So can't assume this is private money in the bank, could be a pension or a 401K. Lots of people have those.

GDX and DBA are both tradable on any standard platform.

3) I guess Oil is the best energy investment but what about heating oil or energy companies.
DO. Whenever I trade a run in oil, I do it in the offshore oil drillers and in my opinion, DO has the best management team. If you want an ETF so you are not at the mercy of DO going under, I would go with OIH. If you want the liquid itself, USO. But like GLD, USO does not offer a dividend and you are just buying the commodity not a piece of the future of a company. My long term oil plays are DO and SLB. FWIW.

4) What about changing some US $ cash into Swiss franks at the local bank. This kind of holding is very liquid, can be turned into US $ in a single day by simply depositing it at the local bank.
That is what physical gold and silver are for.
 
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What do you think about the Oil companies CVX, COP, BP, and XOM?

What about Natural Gas companies?
 
What do you think about the Oil companies CVX, COP, BP, and XOM?

What about Natural Gas companies?

Natural gas is highly undervalued. Provided China continues to purchase this resource, the skies the limit.

I foresee take-overs of Natural gas Companies.

Sooner - rather - than later.
 
For a slightly speculative but fundamentally good OIL stock try BZP.

They have proven reserves, long term leases in Peru and experienced management. And just started reporting income which should ramp up even more this year and beyond.

May want to wait for a bit of a drop off this past weeks run up.
 
For a slightly speculative but fundamentally good OIL stock try BZP.

They have proven reserves, long term leases in Peru and experienced management. And just started reporting income which should ramp up even more this year and beyond.

May want to wait for a bit of a drop off this past weeks run up.

For an extremely speculative play, take a look at IOC (closed around $27 today). It already blasted off this week after they had part of their credit facility equitized which squeezed a lot of shorts out. It's a natural gas play in Papua New Guinea (it'll be a great exporter to China). They've hit Natural Gas, but haven't proven out the wells yet. That being said, the stock has been murdered and still has a big short position. If the wells prove out, an analyst over at Raymond James estimates the stock should be around $64/share. A notable investor is T. Boone Pickens (texas oil guy). I feel like the creditor wouldn't have equitized $60 million worth of their credit if they didn't believe the wells were going to prove out.

However, if the wells don't prove out, this thing will absolutely crater.

Extremely speculative. Proceed with caution.
 
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One thing to add - it seems you're looking at exchange traded funds (ETFs) and exchange traded notes (ETNs). If you have a choice between the two, you should go for the ETF instead of the ETN. ETN has credit risk tacked on - and with the state of many investment houses nowadays, it's nice to eliminate or minimize that type of risk.

Also, as Jim Rogers has stated numerous times before - it's better to directly own commodities rather than own companies that process and deal with commodities - I believe Rogers' said that investing in commodities rather than the companies provides you a 300% higher gain (or something like that). I believe he cites a university study that was done a little while ago - I can't find a link for the study right now - and I only did a quick review of the paper, but it does provide this thesis.

1. Go for GLD. I think the choice would be between GLD and IAU. Both have the same expense ratios, but GLD has more gold in their vaults and is more liquid on the exchange. I'm not sure about silver.

2. I hate to break the suggestion I had earlier, but I am a bit partial to some of the agricultural commodity funds on the Elements ETN portfolio - in this case, it would be the ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Agric ETN (RJA). It is an ETN, but the issuer of the notes is the Swedish Export Credit Corporation. The corporation itself is partially backed by the Swedish government and Sweden is doing quite well these days - and the crediting rating for the Swedish Credit Corp is quite high - I believe Aa or so. The risk of default should be low. The main attractions to this ETN are its diversity in commodities (20 different agricultural commodities) and the underlying index is done by Jim Rogers... I have a high regard, as do many others, for Jim Rogers.

3. You may want to diversify your energy holdings with something like the PowerShares DB Energy ETF (DBE). It doesn't just have crude oil holdings:

Brent Crude Futr
Crude Oil
Gasoline Rbob
Heating Oil
Natural Gas

4. I agree with OptionsTrader in that gold and silver will do a good job with hedging against the dollar.

I hope you're not just going to put all your eggs into the commodity basket and that you're thinking of foreign stocks and bonds, too. That will get you away from the dollar while still investing in stocks. If you want to get away from the dollar, think about investing in China via ETFs such as FXI or GXC. It is going to be the next economic superpower and the government still technically has a weak peg against the dollar - and the renminbi should appreciate against the dollar dramatically these next few decades. I've also looked into global bond ETFs such as WIP and BWX - but there aren't too many of these around.

Unless you're fairly well off, I probably wouldn't go to someone like Peter Schiff. I'm sure he does a good job, but his commissions are probably fairly high - I would imagine a few percent every year. Think about going into an ETF/index mutual fund strategy - from a half dozen to a dozen ETFs/index mutual funds that are well diversified. Don't go crazy selling and buying ETFs and mutual funds too often. I would roll it over into a low cost brokerage such as Scottrade (they don't have any account maintenance fees - though your old brokerage might have some). Decide on a long-term strategy, then implement it. Don't trade too often, though you may want to rebalance your portfolio once in a while. Be careful how you not only do your asset allocation, but also asset location (decide how you want to put your investment between the 401K, Roth IRA, and traditional brokerage account for maximum tax benefits).

Again, I'm starting to get my act together, too and learning a few things, so I'm still a novice. Good luck! :)
 
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Before starting any new positions in stocks, I would recommend waiting a little bit to see where this market wants to go. The direction isn't clear. The S&P is very close to the 200 day average again, after a long time below. Positive sentiment could rocket the market and gold would suffer.

I like to chart the SPX in terms of gold to get an idea of inflection points.

Here's a chart of S&P wrt Gold. What will happen at the 200 day moving average test? I am not certain, and I am waiting to see before going large into anything.

r88ghh.png
 
stick with looking at the underlying fundamentals and don't worry so much about charts. Using the irreverant and on target Jim Rogers again as the successful example, look at macro trends and countries or sectors as a whole.

I think there are many solid picks in the above posts, ETF's to buy commodity funds, currencies is a great way to go, and minimizes taxes. Right now, however, it's takes a little work to get your hands on the best stocks and currencies - that is.. stocks and currencies out of the U.S.

One example that's been discussed in RPF many times, buying Renminbi through Everbank. Your thought on diversifying through EuroPacific could be the best stock play, especially in the Asian market. By the time the dust settles , the Asian economy is expected to be twice the power the United States is now.
 
Great thread everyone. Thanks for the ideas. The stock symbols help to get a grasp at those markets. Now I and others can do more research.
 
Before starting any new positions in stocks, I would recommend waiting a little bit to see where this market wants to go. The direction isn't clear. The S&P is very close to the 200 day average again, after a long time below. Positive sentiment could rocket the market and gold would suffer.

I like to chart the SPX in terms of gold to get an idea of inflection points.

Here's a chart of S&P wrt Gold. What will happen at the 200 day moving average test? I am not certain, and I am waiting to see before going large into anything.

r88ghh.png

OT is right on this. Volatility is picking back up, and so getting in right now will take a lot of guts. Investing and Trading are two separate things to me. I invest in mutual funds focused on emerging markets asia/pacific growth, but I trade on today's/10 minutes ago/30 seconds ago idea. I made a few common stock "investments" last week that are down about 8% in one week --- good grief--that's volatility for you. On Friday I got an alert about a sharp 10% down move in a stock called Cheniere Energy (LNG) --- skimmed their conference call report and jumped in on the short side purely to ride the momentum. Covered $2.00 below where I shorted for a nice little rip. That trade had nothing to do with investing, purely speculating.
 
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