CNN NH Poll: Paul at 8%

[DRV45N05]

Hot off the presses:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...while-romney-paul-climb-in-nh-poll/#more-3238

Romney 33%
McCain 18%
Giuliani 16%
Paul 8%
Huckabee 5%
Thompson 4%

MoE: +/-5%

Some things to note:

* The big movers are Romney, Paul, and Giuliani. Romney is up 8 points, Paul is up 4 points, Giuliani is down 8 points.
* McCain is still at 18% with no change. You would think that with his increased presence in New Hampshire and the fact that he's pretty much betting the farm on it would have moved his numbers there among the Republican crowd.

I'm waiting to see some more detailed results in a PDF file, which I'm sure they'll release soon.

 

[Edward]

He's catchin on...

 

[margomaps]

Wow, that's great! Thanks for posting this. I think this is the second NH poll showing Paul with 8%, following 3 different polls showing him at 7%.

 

[adwads]

Why is McCain still so high? Nobody thinks he's going to get the nomination.

 

[Goldwater Conservative]

Second place is realistic and really very close even if we go by this poll. With a margin of error of 5%, the difference between 18% and 8% isn't all that much.

 

[jgmaynard]

"The CNN/WMUR poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire between Wednesday and Sunday. Pollsters surveyed 404 Republican voters for the survey, which had a sampling error of 5 percentage points."

So does this mean that Independents were not included in the poll? Or that I's who plan to vote R were included? It sounds to me like they are just including previously registered R's. If you add the I vote to it, it would likely be much higher, especially since I's outnumber Rs in the state by quite a margin...

JM

 

[Ira Aten]

He just won in a nationwide poll by Zogby International, which was done as a blind poll. He won it by a landslide. Results are on a new thread I posted.

It is great he is at 8 in CNN poll. But he is No. 1 in the Zogby one I posted on this thread. I always knew from the text message polls on Fox after the debates, with 38 percent, that more preferred Ron Paul.

Now, it appears he won the Zogby with 32 percent on average.

This is Great news for America.

 

[mordechai]

Yep. I think Paul could do alot of damage depending on how many independents wish to vote for him. NH is like Missouri. No matter which party you are registered to, you pick which party's ballot you wish to vote on, but you only get to vote for one party's candidates.

Question is how many independents are gonna vote for Paul, and how many wish to make decisions on the Democratic side. While I don't think it matters much either way for the Democratic candidates, independents might be how Paul gets NH, or atleast makes 2nd or 3rd.

 

[AgentPaul001]

Wow this is definitely good for the campaign since this is with REPUBLICANS. Independents were already surveying at about 2x as likely to vote for Paul.

 

[Micahyah]

"The CNN/WMUR poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire between Wednesday and Sunday. Pollsters surveyed 404 Republican voters for the survey, which had a sampling error of 5 percentage points."

So does this mean that Independents were not included in the poll? Or that I's who plan to vote R were included? It sounds to me like they are just including previously registered R's. If you add the I vote to it, it would likely be much higher, especially since I's outnumber Rs in the state by quite a margin...

JM

That is a KEY question. Because among independents, I think Paul has picked up a lot of votes that may have headed McCain's way in 2000.

 

[ItsTime]

Usually when they include indies (undies) they say so. I am going to assume that this means people who are registered R.

"The CNN/WMUR poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire between Wednesday and Sunday. Pollsters surveyed 404 Republican voters for the survey, which had a sampling error of 5 percentage points."

So does this mean that Independents were not included in the poll? Or that I's who plan to vote R were included? It sounds to me like they are just including previously registered R's. If you add the I vote to it, it would likely be much higher, especially since I's outnumber Rs in the state by quite a margin...

JM

 

[weatherbill]

I think he's much higher than they are saying.
Polls are fixed.

NH happens to be a very conservative state traditionally.....why suddenly would they change their colors. I personally think the media is getting fed big fat lies by CIA and other insiders......I hope RP kicks butt in NH.....send a shock wave throughout the country !!! Show the media to be nothing more than a pack of lies.

 

[hawkeyenick]

These polls are of people who went to the primary and were registered republican last time

 

[Jwaksman]

No, that's not true. Different pollsters have slightly different formulae to determine who likely voters are. But every pollster is well aware that Republican primary numbers were very low in '04 because Bush ran uncontested. None of them are dumb enough to not count the votes of everybody who didn't vote last time.

 

[Jwaksman]

The "hard" numbers are the most encouraging. Here is the voting breakdown of "definitely decided" voters:


Romney: 41%
Rudy: 19%
Paul: 18%
Huckabee: 8%
McCain: 7%


And this is with 2/3 of independents saying they're going to vote in the Dem primary. If Hillary wins Iowa her nomination will seem inevitable and independents will flock to the Republican primaries. And right now Paul is at 4% of Republicans and 27% of Independents. I like these numbers

 

[Kapt Nemo]

The "hard" numbers are the most encouraging. Here is the voting breakdown of "definitely decided" voters:


Romney: 41%
Rudy: 19%
Paul: 18%
Huckabee: 8%
McCain: 7%


And this is with 2/3 of independents saying they're going to vote in the Dem primary. If Hillary wins Iowa her nomination will seem inevitable and independents will flock to the Republican primaries. And right now Paul is at 4% of Republicans and 27% of Independents. I like these numbers

Yes those numbers are lookin good but we've gotta keep pressing on the masses to keep the ball rolling.