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Can AMD survive its management?

Thoughts?

  • AMD will become irrelevent within the year

    Votes: 3 17.6%

  • AMD will become irrelevent within the decade

    Votes: 3 17.6%

  • AMD will recover after restructuring is complete.

    Votes: 7 41.2%

  • Intel and Nvidia will soon have a monopoly in their respective markets

    Votes: 1 5.9%

  • A larger company will acquire AMD & ATI to prevent a monopoly.

    Votes: 6 35.3%

  • SEC will break up Intel and Nvidia.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    17
Kludge

Kludge

Member
Joined
Dec 21, 2007
Messages
21,719
AMD has plummeted this year from heavy competition from Intel, lagging R&D, and their recent acquisition of the faltering ATI (which is having the very same problems with Nvidia).

The Phenom chip simply couldn't match the speeds of Intel's chips even after "upgrading" to a 45 nm. processor. Even worse, Nvidia released their 260/280 GTX models a couple weeks ago and they appear to be very significantly faster over ATI's fastest chip...
image021.png


AMD's stock price has been beaten down and is suffering a profit margin of ~-56%. (For reference, Intel's profit margin is ~18%, and Nvidia comes in around 19.50% with ATI at just under 14%)

big.chart

big.chart




Will AMD be able to recover? Will Nvidia & Intel soon have monopolies? Will Moore's law be disproven?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/amd-shares-hit-new-low/story.aspx?guid={F62257A6-E0EB-47D0-AD65-DEF10F619EBE}&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN
 
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This is just my personal opinion, and I admit there's some speculation on my part...

But I think AMD will tank and disappear within the next 1-5 years.

Who will buy them? Dunno, but I honestly think it's down to 2 companies: NVidia and Intel.

Intel can easily buy them up...NVidia? They don't have enough money (yet...though if AMD continues to tank, they can probably afford them).

If Intel buys AMD, they'll probably kill of AMD, or make them the "poor man's processors", and attempt to give a major boost to ATI. If NVidia buys AMD, they'll kill off ATI (most likely) and give a major boost to AMD.

I personally think if NVidia buys out AMD, it'll create more competition, as NVidia can then go head-to-head with Intel on multiple fronts.

Overall though, AMD is on extremely shaky waters...and they've screwed up really badly.
 
I thought the ATi 4800 was the best ATi GPU. Also the price of the most powerful NVIDIA cards gives ATi a good amount of customers.
 
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coyote_sprit said:
I thought the ATi 4800 was the best ATi GPU. Also the price of the most powerful NVIDIA cards gives ATi a good amount of customers.
Click to expand...

ATI is making a small profit, but AMD is tanking hard. They simply couldn't afford ATI and the return on profits at ATI is too slow to help out AMD.
 
Where's the Arabs or Chinese to buy AMD?

The Dollar hit a big low today against , like, ALL THE CURRENCIES... so the 'AMERICA FOR SALE' sign is flashing brightly!

Thanx FEDS! You really know how to screw-up the best country in the world.
 
Kludge said:
AMD has plummeted this year from heavy competition from Intel, lagging R&D, and their recent acquisition of the faltering ATI (which is having the very same problems with Nvidia).

The Phenom chip simply couldn't match the speeds of Intel's chips even after "upgrading" to a 45 nm. processor. Even worse, Nvidia released their 260/280 GTX models a couple weeks ago and they appear to be very significantly faster over ATI's fastest chip...
image021.png


AMD's stock price has been beaten down and is suffering a profit margin of ~-56%. (For reference, Intel's profit margin is ~18%, and Nvidia comes in around 19.50% with ATI at just under 14%)

big.chart

big.chart




Will AMD be able to recover? Will Nvidia & Intel soon have monopolies? Will Moore's law be disproven?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/amd-shares-hit-new-low/story.aspx?guid={F62257A6-E0EB-47D0-AD65-DEF10F619EBE}&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN
Click to expand...

Uhh, no it will not disappear. http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16814102748 blows the doors of Nvidia. And the optomized drivers arn't even out yet. DDR5 is brand new, and this is the only thing that carries it. Is it enough to keep AMD afloat? Dunno, but I've heard that AMD was working on a new chip that had completly new arcitechture, combining the uses of both CPU and GPU in one single chip. Intel is probably doing the same though.
 
Kludge said:
Even worse, Nvidia released their 260/280 GTX models a couple weeks ago and they appear to be very significantly faster over ATI's fastest chip...
image021.png
Click to expand...

Hold on, doesn't that graph show that the ATI card is faster? :confused:

Anyway, I voted that ATI/AMD will stick around after restructuring. They have a lot of talent, and I think they are getting a second wind about now. Optimistic, yes.
 
youngbuck said:
Hold on, doesn't that graph show that the ATI card is faster? :confused:

Anyway, I voted that ATI/AMD will stick around after restructuring. They have a lot of talent, and I think they are getting a second wind about now. Optimistic, yes.
Click to expand...

x2, as in... ATI attached two of their cards together ;)
 
Fox McCloud said:
This is just my personal opinion, and I admit there's some speculation on my part...

But I think AMD will tank and disappear within the next 1-5 years.

Who will buy them? Dunno, but I honestly think it's down to 2 companies: NVidia and Intel.

Intel can easily buy them up...NVidia? They don't have enough money (yet...though if AMD continues to tank, they can probably afford them).

If Intel buys AMD, they'll probably kill of AMD, or make them the "poor man's processors", and attempt to give a major boost to ATI. If NVidia buys AMD, they'll kill off ATI (most likely) and give a major boost to AMD.

I personally think if NVidia buys out AMD, it'll create more competition, as NVidia can then go head-to-head with Intel on multiple fronts.

Overall though, AMD is on extremely shaky waters...and they've screwed up really badly.
Click to expand...

That still gives either Nvidia or Intel virtually 100% market share, it's already an oligopoly. Would the SEC allow NVDA/INTC to buy them out?
 
ATI might make a respectable graphics card now, but that's not going to save AMD from all of their failing business operations. If you think a couple of nerdy gamers can turn AMD around by buying a few graphics cards you got another thing coming. You forget, they try to do much, much more than graphics cards. Plus, there are many Nvidia loyalists. Nvidia won't be caught with their pants down again...you can bet on it. Anyone that can read a financial statement can see AMD deserves to be dismantled. The stock is over inflated and is in the same league as Overstock that's trading at 25 bucks a share. Terrible ratios, no good products, no real plan.

They are done...and to be honest, I don't think it does anyone any good to buy them out.

Anyway, might wanna catch the firesale on Nvidia...
 
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Kludge said:
That still gives either Nvidia or Intel virtually 100% market share, it's already an oligopoly. Would the SEC allow NVDA/INTC to buy them out?
Click to expand...

I thought you were an Anarcho-Capitalist, Kludge? :-p by your own definition, a merger like this would be ok with you ;)

If NVidia buys AMD and kills off ATI, then NVidia will have 100% independent graphics-card market share almost immediately....they'll still compete against Intel for integrated (and I wouldn't be surprised if, under this scenario, Intel would start putting funding into independent graphics cards as well).

If Intel buys out AMD and kills off AMD (or makes them non-so-great, as I mentioned earlier), but leaves ATI, they'll have 100% market-share in the processor world with no real immediate competitor.

Would it be allowed? I doubt it...but frankly, I don't care; no matter what, Intel will always be competing against itself to a certain degree...and if their prices get too out of control, I'd almost guarantee some other company (NVidia, perhaps) would challenge Intel, and you'd probably have multiple companies again.

Personally though, I'd rather NVidia end up with AMD than Intel ending up with it...I think it'd be a better fit, smoother transition, and less complaining by people, in general.
 
I'd love a monopoly on PC technology. Having to upgrade for graphics/computing power is a bitch (Intel&Nvidia would probably gain more from us by continuing to go beyond Moore's law though....), that doesn't mean the SEC will allow it. But then, I don't know how they'd split when the problem with monopolies on GPUs and CPUs is the incredible amount that needs to be invested into R&D to have a card/chip that even competes.

Worse yet, if Intel or Nvidia could threaten to pull supply to PC/laptop manufacturers that dare sell their competitor's chips, the monopoly may become unbreakable for years, giving a bad rap to free markets.... :(
 
Anyone that is a gamer would tell You sure they will recover. The only reason they are doing poorly is because they got cocky. Intel was the under dog for years so now its amd's turn. Also ATI just released some cost effective cards that put them in competition with nvidea. This play has played out for the last 15 years with both of the companies taking the lead from time to time. I would admit though intels chips are awesome right now as far as power and temps. It will take AMD a while to catch up but the will eventually.
 
AMD will bounce back. This is just the same scenario as when AMD overtook Intel and when Intel just recently overtook AMD. Intel will get comfy and AMD will release a new chip that will spank the pants off of Intel for a bit. Their R&D cycles alternate with each other instead of being in time. AMD has probably taken all the money from their overtake of the market and dumped it into R&D and intel took their R&D and overtook the market which was allowed by their previous overtake of AMD.

At least, that's what I would have done.
 
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