- Joined
- Nov 5, 2010
- Messages
- 37,840
Official apportionment data are due to be released later today (26 April 2021)
In Monday’s new apportionment, who will lose, Alabama or New York?
https://election.princeton.edu/2021...-apportionment-will-alabama-or-new-york-lose/
Sam Wang (24 April 2021)
On Monday afternoon the Commerce Department is expected to release the new apportionment from the 2020 Census. It will be posted here. Generally, southwestern states will win Congressional seats; the northeast and California will lose. There’s some uncertainty as to whether Alabama will lose 0 or 1 seat, and whether New York will lose 1 or 2 seats. The Census Project has an explainer. Finally, check out this deep dive into historical trends from CUNY’s Redistricting and You.
This is an article from several months ago, based on census estimates available at the time (bold emphasis added):
Cuomo's NY Suffers Biggest Loss in New Census Estimates, Red States Make Biggest Gains
https://www.westernjournal.com/cuom...nsus-estimates-red-states-make-biggest-gains/
Jack Davis (23 December 2020)
An unofficial census estimate predicts that New York will lose two congressional seats in the next round of redistricting, making it the nation’s biggest loser.
According to the Census Bureau, the numbers are not the official figures that come from the 2020 count of citizens. Rather they are drawn from estimates that use birth records, death records and other data to provide annual snapshots of approximate population changes in between each official census count.
The estimates project that New York state’s 2020 population is about 41,000 people lower than the state’s population in 2010. That contrasts with Texas, which is projected to add about 4.2 million people. Overall, the estimates project that the nation’s population rose by almost 21 million people between 2010 and 2020.
[...]
If the estimates are accurate, seven states would add congressional seats and nine states would lose them, according to Roll Call. The 435 members of the House are apportioned by population, while the 100 Senate seats are divided up with two senators for each state.
California would lose a congressional seat for the first time in its history if the projections are the same as the final data.
Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Minnesota would also lose seats.
But as the Northeast and Midwest lose, the South and West gain.
Texas would gain three seats, according to the projections, while fellow red state Florida would add two seats.
Also projected to gain seats are North Carolina, Colorado, Montana, Arizona and Oregon.
[...]
“I think it’s really a continuation of what we’ve seen since 1930,” Kimball Brace, the president of Election Data Services, told Politico last year. “It is a movement away from the Northeast and the Upper Midwest to the South and to the West.”
Brace said the trend line impacts rural areas.
“The rural population and the rural power is basically diminishing very dramatically. I think you see that in Congress,” she told Roll Call.
New York state will see that played out as New York City gains power at the expense of the rest of the state, predicted Justin Levitt, a Loyola Law School professor.
Levitt said New York City has most of the state’s growth, and also the most minority voters. Rural upstate areas, meanwhile, are shrinking.
“Population trends indicate that population loss is upstate and, if anything, the minority population in places like New York City is growing,” Levitt said.
[... S]tate legislators are the ones who are given the chore of drawing new district lines. In some states, those new districts must be drawn before the 2021 elections. The new congressional districts will be in place for the 2022 elections.
In Monday’s new apportionment, who will lose, Alabama or New York?
https://election.princeton.edu/2021...-apportionment-will-alabama-or-new-york-lose/
Sam Wang (24 April 2021)
On Monday afternoon the Commerce Department is expected to release the new apportionment from the 2020 Census. It will be posted here. Generally, southwestern states will win Congressional seats; the northeast and California will lose. There’s some uncertainty as to whether Alabama will lose 0 or 1 seat, and whether New York will lose 1 or 2 seats. The Census Project has an explainer. Finally, check out this deep dive into historical trends from CUNY’s Redistricting and You.
This is an article from several months ago, based on census estimates available at the time (bold emphasis added):
Cuomo's NY Suffers Biggest Loss in New Census Estimates, Red States Make Biggest Gains
https://www.westernjournal.com/cuom...nsus-estimates-red-states-make-biggest-gains/
Jack Davis (23 December 2020)
An unofficial census estimate predicts that New York will lose two congressional seats in the next round of redistricting, making it the nation’s biggest loser.
According to the Census Bureau, the numbers are not the official figures that come from the 2020 count of citizens. Rather they are drawn from estimates that use birth records, death records and other data to provide annual snapshots of approximate population changes in between each official census count.
The estimates project that New York state’s 2020 population is about 41,000 people lower than the state’s population in 2010. That contrasts with Texas, which is projected to add about 4.2 million people. Overall, the estimates project that the nation’s population rose by almost 21 million people between 2010 and 2020.
[...]
If the estimates are accurate, seven states would add congressional seats and nine states would lose them, according to Roll Call. The 435 members of the House are apportioned by population, while the 100 Senate seats are divided up with two senators for each state.
California would lose a congressional seat for the first time in its history if the projections are the same as the final data.
Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Minnesota would also lose seats.
But as the Northeast and Midwest lose, the South and West gain.
Texas would gain three seats, according to the projections, while fellow red state Florida would add two seats.
Also projected to gain seats are North Carolina, Colorado, Montana, Arizona and Oregon.
[...]
“I think it’s really a continuation of what we’ve seen since 1930,” Kimball Brace, the president of Election Data Services, told Politico last year. “It is a movement away from the Northeast and the Upper Midwest to the South and to the West.”
Brace said the trend line impacts rural areas.
“The rural population and the rural power is basically diminishing very dramatically. I think you see that in Congress,” she told Roll Call.
New York state will see that played out as New York City gains power at the expense of the rest of the state, predicted Justin Levitt, a Loyola Law School professor.
Levitt said New York City has most of the state’s growth, and also the most minority voters. Rural upstate areas, meanwhile, are shrinking.
“Population trends indicate that population loss is upstate and, if anything, the minority population in places like New York City is growing,” Levitt said.
[... S]tate legislators are the ones who are given the chore of drawing new district lines. In some states, those new districts must be drawn before the 2021 elections. The new congressional districts will be in place for the 2022 elections.
