Brokered convention possible now?

[andy mcdee]

Hope I posted in the right sub forum, Since I'm from Sweden my only experience of US primary politics are based on "The West Wing". (It's the only US political drama I've seen over here)

So is a brokered possible now that Fred Is out? We have Mcain, Mitt and Huck which have more delegates compared to Ron and Far more than Rudy prior Florida. If any combination of two candidates get 50% then the convention is over right? so let's have a happy thought and assume that Rudy misses the boat out of Florida. so then we have 4 players which would mean that If all were decent guys they'd have about 25 % each. In reality some one will have >25% and could easily kill the idea of a brokered convention by working with any candidate that has enough delegates to get above 50 %. maybe some small fry at about 10% would like the VP-spot. so the only hope is that the others are so equally strong that the all refuse the VP-ticket?

 

[Cleaner44]

Of course it is.

 

[HarbingerOfTruth]

More likely. Fred supporters will probably split supporting one candidate and another, keeping candidates alive.

 

[andy mcdee]

ok but is it because we hope that they are greedy and won't accept a VP spot? and thus we want Ron to get as much support(Duh!!) prior to the convention and the remaining competition to stay as even as possible?

 

[Gadsden Flag]

Who gets Fred's delegates now that he quit? What about Duncan Hunter's? He had a couple, right?

 

[tsetsefly]

ok but is it because we hope that they are greedy and won't accept a VP spot? and thus we want Ron to get as much support(Duh!!) prior to the convention and the remaining competition to stay as even as possible?

i think his delegates will be able to vote however they want.

It has nothing to do with wanting or not wanting a vp spot.

We want the competition to stay as long as possible, imo, rudy winning in flordia would really almost seal a brokered convention, because he most likely would get some states on feb 4, so will huckabee, mccain, romney and hopefully Paul.

 

[Goldwater Conservative]

If no candidate receives 50% +1 of the delegates (in this case, 1191), then the convention is technically brokered. I think it's still very much possible if no candidate wins more than seven or eight states on Super Tuesday.

 

[joenaab]

I wish I knew more about how a brokered convention works. I don't think it's as simple as two candidates who have >50% between them agreeing to combine forces to give one of them the nomination. I believe all delegates on the first vote are required to vote for whom they are assigned to vote for (though don't know if this applies if the guy has formally backed out a la Fred today). Then, when this type of negotiation begins, one candidate can't simply give his delegates to another, there will be another vote, and though he can suggest that his delegates vote for a different candidate, they are no longer obligated to do as he asks, nor are they even obligated to vote for the candidate that they voted for in the first vote, even if he stays in the running (eg: 1st vote has no winner, McCain, Giuliani and Huckabee tell their delegates to vote for Romney, neither the Romney, Giuliani, McCain nor Huckabee delegates are obliged to vote for Romney on the 2nd vote).

I don't think Ron Paul could walk into a brokered convention with 5%-10% of the delegates thinking that he'll have a chance to win the nomination. I would think he'd need to be near 20% and close to the others. Certainly, the others will be instructed by their "handlers" as to what to say and do to ensure that one of them gets the nomination. RP's chances would come from counting on the delegates to revolt against the mainstream candidate's desires in the second vote.

Also, his chances are best if all five candidates are still in and no one is over, say, 30%. If they are all in the 15-25% range, then it will be fun indeed.

 

[Gadsden Flag]

^^^ What's interesting is that RP has already said that he wouldn't endorse any of the other candidates. What's he going to do at the convention?

Maybe he get appointed to an office in the white house in exchange for his delegates support. What would be a good job for him? I have actually heard some non-RP supporters say that he'd be an excellent speaker of the house. But that's not up for grabs.

Make him Chief of Staff or something.

 

[Bradley in DC]

It helps to post in the right forum and do a search before starting a duplicate thread with your questions answered.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=47093

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=47018

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=47114

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=79554

 

[nate895]

Hope I posted in the right sub forum, Since I'm from Sweden my only experience of US primary politics are based on "The West Wing". (It's the only US political drama I've seen over here)

So is a brokered possible now that Fred Is out? We have Mcain, Mitt and Huck which have more delegates compared to Ron and Far more than Rudy prior Florida. If any combination of two candidates get 50% then the convention is over right? so let's have a happy thought and assume that Rudy misses the boat out of Florida. so then we have 4 players which would mean that If all were decent guys they'd have about 25 % each. In reality some one will have >25% and could easily kill the idea of a brokered convention by working with any candidate that has enough delegates to get above 50 %. maybe some small fry at about 10% would like the VP-spot. so the only hope is that the others are so equally strong that the all refuse the VP-ticket?

Candidates cannot directly control their delegates, if they release them.