Anyone know what M3 is at?
- Thread starter acroso
- Start date
SevenEyedJeff
Member
- Joined
- May 31, 2007
- Messages
- 1,054
John Williams has been calculating M3 ever since the Fed stopped reporting it, and it's around 15% right now, you can see the charts here:
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
He also calculates GDP, inflation, etc. as the government used to figure it before they started to manipulate the numbers.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
He also calculates GDP, inflation, etc. as the government used to figure it before they started to manipulate the numbers.
SevenEyedJeff
Member
- Joined
- May 31, 2007
- Messages
- 1,054
He calculates the same way the Fed had, if you look at the chart it changes color in early 2006 as it changes from M3 (which the Fed had calculated) to M3-SGS Continuation (which is M3 as measured by Shadow Government Statistics). So it's just a continuation on this particular chart. But as far as M3 goes, it just measures the total money supply, you can't just lie about that, as it is a definite number. If you have a pile of, say, 100 $1 bills you are counting, you can't find another method to come up with a different result. There are 100 $1 bills, no bones about it.
But with CPI, the government changed its method in the Clinton years. For example, the old CPI was always calculated using the same basket of items, let's say for simplicity we're basing it on the price of a hamburger, fries, and soda. But now the government says if the price is going way up for the hamburger, people are going to substitute it for turkey instead. So they take out the hamburger and only show the turkey inflation. Then they change back to hamburger when it goes the other way. But when they do that, they don't include the amount by which the hamburger went up in price while they weren't including it. CPI is an easy number to manipulate in this manner.
Hope this helps a bit. Anyone else who can explain it better please feel free.
But with CPI, the government changed its method in the Clinton years. For example, the old CPI was always calculated using the same basket of items, let's say for simplicity we're basing it on the price of a hamburger, fries, and soda. But now the government says if the price is going way up for the hamburger, people are going to substitute it for turkey instead. So they take out the hamburger and only show the turkey inflation. Then they change back to hamburger when it goes the other way. But when they do that, they don't include the amount by which the hamburger went up in price while they weren't including it. CPI is an easy number to manipulate in this manner.
Hope this helps a bit. Anyone else who can explain it better please feel free.
SevenEyedJeff
Member
- Joined
- May 31, 2007
- Messages
- 1,054
Frankly, it could be inflation or deflation, and things are just so weird right now I really can't even venture a guess. You just don't know what's going to happen, how much manipulation/central bank intervention is going to occur, when or if a major war might start. Is the dollar going to crash suddenly? Are tons of banks going to fail and suddenly few people have cash? Too many factors to consider and I'm not an economist. If you asked 100 people, you would probably get 90 different answers to your question. 
acroso
Banned
- Joined
- Dec 16, 2007
- Messages
- 1,597
M3
Well if inflation is that high and that guy is right....and interest rates are only 2-3%...that means interest rates are DRASTICALLY artificially low.
I would expect inflation.
Frankly, it could be inflation or deflation, and things are just so weird right now I really can't even venture a guess. You just don't know what's going to happen, how much manipulation/central bank intervention is going to occur, when or if a major war might start. Is the dollar going to crash suddenly? Are tons of banks going to fail and suddenly few people have cash? Too many factors to consider and I'm not an economist. If you asked 100 people, you would probably get 90 different answers to your question.
Well if inflation is that high and that guy is right....and interest rates are only 2-3%...that means interest rates are DRASTICALLY artificially low.
I would expect inflation.
Similar threads
