An Open Letter to Iowa Skeptics

[Harry96]

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig7/muratore7.html

I love her conclusion about Iowa, based on the current poll numbers, the 6.8% voter turnout in 2000, and the odds of far more than 6.8% of Paul's supporters showing up tomorrow night:

"In Iowa, Ron Paul polls at 6.2% with Huckabee at 31% and Romney at 26%. If 6.8% percent of Huckabee and Romney voters go to caucus, but 50% of Paul supporters go to caucus, Paul will win with 35% of the vote and an 11-point margin over Huckabee (!)."

 

[Thrice]

I'm not an Iowa skeptic, but I really enjoyed reading that, regardless. Thanks for the link.

I actually tried to "digg" it and apparently it wasn't yet, so I submitted it. Here's the link:http://digg.com/political_opinion/An_Open_Letter_to_Iowa_Skeptics

 

[katao]

WAY too big of a leap to think that only 6.8% of Huckabee and Romney voters go to caucus. Romney, in particular, has a superb well-paid organization (as well as the Mormon pulpit of "go do your civic duty"). Trust me, they will know who their supporters are and will be getting them out. Huckabee has a poor organization but the benefit of all the church organizations.

I think she's got it backwards - Ron Paul will beat expectations in Iowa to place 3rd, and can do even better in NH because of an Iowa bump and polling inaccuracies.

 

[Paul4Prez]

Some more free advice for Iowans, in case they need any:

A Vote for Ron Paul is Never Wasted:

http://paul4prez.blogspot.com/2008/01/vote-for-ron-paul-is-never-wasted.html


The Top 10 Reasons Ron Paul Can Win:

http://paul4prez.blogspot.com/2007/12/top-ten-reasons-ron-paul-can-win.html


Ron Paul is the Most Mainstream Candidate

http://paul4prez.blogspot.com/2007/12/ron-paul-is-most-mainstream-candidate.html

 

[hueylong]

Pure crack.

We'll turnout at higher rates than the others, but there was no valid statistical basis for that 'open letter'.

3rd in Iowa will mean a solid 8 to 10 point bump going into NH.

Keep expectations realistic -- then exceed them.

Huey

 

[nist7]

Under-promise and over-deliver.

 

[Highstreet]

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig7/muratore7.html

I love her conclusion about Iowa, based on the current poll numbers, the 6.8% voter turnout in 2000, and the odds of far more than 6.8% of Paul's supporters showing up tomorrow night:

"In Iowa, Ron Paul polls at 6.2% with Huckabee at 31% and Romney at 26%. If 6.8% percent of Huckabee and Romney voters go to caucus, but 50% of Paul supporters go to caucus, Paul will win with 35% of the vote and an 11-point margin over Huckabee (!)."

I agree that not every one will show up.

However, that just means RP supporters need to come out with 100% to guarantee it!

 

[StudentForPaul08]

I do agree that the lower the turnout overall, the better for Ron Paul. I do expect a higher turnout though.