Ames Threshold For Success

[Thom1776]

I think there is a certain percentage of votes in the straw poll that Paul must get to declare success in Ames. The number of votes is not as important, nor is the order of finish. I'm basing this statement on the so-called "scientific" national polls.

As far as I know, the highest he has gotten in any national poll is 3%. In fact, he just scored 3% in Pennsylvania. The MSM almost always states in any report concerning Paul that he is "polling at 2%" or less. So the percentages seem to be the most important factor to most people.

So what, then, would constitute a "successful" percentage in Ames? Let's take that 3% figure, double it, and add one more point:

7%

If he finishes with 2% or less, then the "scientific" pollsters sure know what they're doing, and we just keep plugging away.

3 or 4%: We are on the "upslope" like the good doctor himself likes to say.

5 or 6%: High-fives all around! Our upslope has just shifted to a higher gear!

7% or higher: We are NOT just the internet! See you in Minneapolis!

 

[FreedomLover]

I agree with this threshold.

 

[UtahApocalypse]

we want 99.9%

 

[Sematary]

Many of us have been arguing that his true support falls somewhere between the 3% he is registering in the "scientific" polls and the overwhelming deluge of votes he receives on the internet. I would say that anything less than 10% would be fairly disappointing as that is what I expect his general support is around the country (if they actually manged to contact Ron Paul supporters once in awhile). Anything above 10% would be good. 15 to 20% would be better than good and better than 20% would be fantastic - more than we could have hoped for. But, I don't know the numbers of the straw poll. How many votes are generally cast and how many are we expecting to get? 1000? 2000? More? out of how many?

 

[FreedomLover]

Many of us have been arguing that his true support falls somewhere between the 3% he is registering in the "scientific" polls and the overwhelming deluge of votes he receives on the internet. I would say that anything less than 10% would be fairly disappointing

Yeah, but this is the threshhold for the RP campaign to declare success, not some of the individual supporters. Remember, we're competing against our own expectations.

 

[Mani]

Many of us have been arguing that his true support falls somewhere between the 3% he is registering in the "scientific" polls and the overwhelming deluge of votes he receives on the internet. I would say that anything less than 10% would be fairly disappointing as that is what I expect his general support is around the country (if they actually manged to contact Ron Paul supporters once in awhile). Anything above 10% would be good. 15 to 20% would be better than good and better than 20% would be fantastic - more than we could have hoped for. But, I don't know the numbers of the straw poll. How many votes are generally cast and how many are we expecting to get? 1000? 2000? More? out of how many?

I would be pleased with more than say: 3,500 votes out of 40,000. That's about 8.75%

Ron Paul has 500 tickets, plus I think RP supporters bought another 500-600 tickets. So 3% was bought, the rest( almost 6%) are people who paid or got a $35 ticket on their own.

I think that's a nice showing without the campaign having gone Iowa or BUST with their budget.

 

[JosephTheLibertarian]

I would be pleased with more than say: 3,500 votes out of 40,000. That's about 8.75%

Ron Paul has 500 tickets, plus I think RP supporters bought another 500-600 tickets. So 3% was bought, the rest( almost 6%) are people who paid or got a $35 ticket on their own.

I think that's a nice showing without the campaign having gone Iowa or BUST with their budget.

nah.. Ron Paul bought 800 tickets

 

[stevedasbach]

I wonder why is everyone in Iowa predicting 40,000+ votes? Only about 23,000 were cast in 1999, and most of the "top tier" this year isn't participating.

 

[Hook]

I prophesy 7.5%

 

[american.swan]

Ron Paul traveled around Iowa this week. And I heard on one video that they were signing up people who were going to go and vote. I think success would be based on those numbers. Like turnout at the straw poll verses turnout at a rally.

In my mind, if the turn out numbers are better then expected "number wise" then that would be a success. I am not thinking about what place he finishes or what percent. I will be interested in how the campain feels about the numbers of voters that got the message.

If a major Ron Paul rally draws 1000 people from Iowa, and the straw poll gets 2000 votes, then that is progress of some type right? maybe I am wrong.

 

[Slugg]

I wonder why is everyone in Iowa predicting 40,000+ votes? Only about 23,000 were cast in 1999, and most of the "top tier" this year isn't participating.

40,000 people show up to the event. But many are children of the actual voters. So only about 25,000 people end up voting.

So, if we can get 2,500 votes, we'll be looking REALLY good! I think anyway. 1,000 will require a 'nod'....so, I think we are 'safe'.....

 

[drednot]

5% would be outstanding, this is enemy territory.

 

[Hook]

I feel closer to 7.35% now

 

[MozoVote]

I made a semi-educated stab at it, based on how I think the other candidates will total out.

My guess is 7% to 9% for Paul.

I really think 7% is acheivable, considering Ron's passionate support and the possibility of an underwhelming overall fund raising total for the straw poll. Remember, most people are really not that enthused about the other candidiates.

I would not be too upset at 5% or 6%. It's still enough to embarass some of the others, and shame them into considering leaving.

 

[Harry96]

Like most others, I think at least 6-7% is acceptable, and is enough to get some traction, especially since the field should be narrowed considerably by next week. 10% or more, which is entirely possible, would be excellent.

Rank-wise, #1 would, of course, be phenomenal; #2 or 3, which is what I expect, would be excellent; even #4 would be okay, if a little disappointing. Anything less than fourth will be really disappointing.

 

[Original_Intent]

Anything above the 2-3% official polls is a win.
7-10% would be an attention grabbing win that will really catapult RP forward.
Anything above 10% would just be unbelievably great!