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59 divisions in Philly with no votes for Romney a statistical possibility?

Dickens

Member
Joined
Jun 30, 2012
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223
A viral meme had stated that no votes for Romney in 59 divisions in Philadelphia is a mathematical and statistical impossibility. PolitiFact, a publication of Poynter Institute, had analyzed the claim and ruled it a "Pants on Fire."

PolitiFact based its judgment on small numbers of registered Republicans in those divisions:

Some of the 59 divisions had fewer than 10 registered Republicans, according to records from April 2012. The average number of registered Republicans in these divisions was 17.

The number 17 is indeed not big, not hundreds or thousands. But 59×17=1003. What is the probability that all 1003 registered Republicans in 59 divisions in question did not vote? A calculation leads to 10^(-381) figure. Or in other words to zero.

PolitiFact's "Pants on Fire" ruling was unfounded.
 
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