538 forecast projects Biden winning presidential race this fall.

[Anti Federalist]

https://x.com/baseballot/status/1800501373773271080

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

 

[Swordsmyth]

LOL

 

[dannno]

 

[oyarde]

https://x.com/baseballot/status/1800501373773271080

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

That nate silvers ? I read yesterday where he said GOP wins by 7 percent with another candidate. Id have a hard time seeing that. As bad as biden is vast majority of dem voters are more party loyal than can possibly be imagined.

 

[TheCount]

There's way too much stuff happening between now and November for forecasts to mean anything

 

[pmbug]

That nate silvers ? ...

From a year ago:

A major election-polling shakeup began three weeks ago, when, as part of Disney’s push to cut 7,000 jobs, ABC News decided not to renew the contract of FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver. Though Disney has been cutting costs across the board, this was still an unexpected move: Silver has his critics, but he’s generally considered one of the best minds in election forecasting.

On Friday, the plot thickened. ABC News announced that it had hired pollster G. Elliott Morris to be the editorial director of data analytics, which also oversees the operations of FiveThirtyEight. Morris, a pollster for The Economist, is the young hotshot to the Silver Establishment: While still an undergraduate at the University of Texas, his forecasting models accurately predicted the shape of the 2018 midterms — as did Silver’s. But in the run-up to the 2020 election, Silver and Morris were yelling at each other on Twitter over differences in polling approaches.
...

More:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...hires-g-elliott-morris-loses-nate-silver.html

 

[Snowball]

 

[69360]

It's too soon for predictions with everything going on.

 

[CaptUSA]

https://x.com/baseballot/status/1800501373773271080

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

They just need enough polls to make it plausible... As long as there are some polls out there that say it's plausible for Biden to win, that'll be enough to pull off another steal.

Because, just like last time, it'll give the corporate press and the intelligentsia elite cover while they're telling everyone to "move on" and "don't question" the results. I think the Trump camp really needs to prepare themselves for another "loss".

 

[fisharmor]

I think the Trump camp really needs to prepare themselves for another "loss".

I think Trump's chief fault, among many, many faults, is that he either doesn't know or doesn't care what's going to happen if there is even any question about election integrity this time around.

It's not going to be good.

This isn't 487 dimension chess. This is just regular old, don't-put-your-knight-there-because-there-are-three-different-pieces-poised-to-take-it chess.

Ultimately one has to wonder if he's actually benefiting from election problems somehow. Anyone with an ounce of integrity would have made elimination of any questions a main objective this time around.

 

[helenpaul]

Trump is going to lose in a lanslide. The debate will be the turning point. expectations are so low for Biden he just has to show up. Also, Trump doesnt know how to debate. He bullied his cowardly rep opponents in 2016. That didnt work in 2020 and it wont work against Biden

 

[Anti Globalist]

I know this is horrible to say but I can't wait to see Trump supporters cope seethe and rage when Trump loses. At the end of the day they will have zero choice but to come out and admit they were conned and that Trump was controlled opposition the entire time.

 

[TheTexan]

Anyone with an ounce of integrity would have made elimination of any questions a main objective this time around.

What would you do in his position to accomplish that?

 

[helenpaul]

I know this is horrible to say but I can't wait to see Trump supporters cope seethe and rage when Trump loses. At the end of the day they will have zero choice but to come out and admit they were conned and that Trump was controlled opposition the entire time.

Should be similar to 2020.

 

[PAF]

Should be similar to 2020.

Would you vote for a president [Trump] who wants to Federally Fund Nationwide "Stop and Frisk" and give complete Immunity to Local LEO, also using Federal Tax-Payer Money? Immunity, for example just like that PREP Act that he signed for OWS?

Asking for a friend.

 

[CaptUSA]

Would you vote for a president [Trump] who wants to Federally Fund Nationwide "Stop and Frisk" and give complete Immunity to Local LEO, also using Federal Tax-Payer Money? Immunity, for example just like that PREP Act that he signed for OWS?

Asking for a friend.

The bar is pretty low on what people would vote for. So, yes. Lots of people will vote for a politician who enacts policies that they don't think will affect them. That's pretty much a given right? Bombs away; they're not landing on my house! Indebt our grandchildren; my kids'll be fine.

 

[PAF]

The bar is pretty low on what people would vote for. So, yes. Lots of people will vote for a politician who enacts policies that they don't think will affect them. That's pretty much a given right? Bombs away; they're not landing on my house! Indebt our grandchildren; my kids'll be fine.

Money aside, we are talking about defending and protecting our Rights.

What those short-sighted voters don't bother to even consider:

1. How many of those goons are actually going to turn down Federal money to have complete immunity?

2. As bad as the goons are now, how do you think they are going to act once they have that complete immunity?

3. Will the rate of "Stop and Frisk" decrease, stay the same, or INCREASE, with said complete immunity?

 

[unknown]

What's their track record?

 

[Anti Globalist]

What's their track record?

They projected Hillary would win in 2016. Not sure about their predictions for past elections.

 

[WarriorLiberty]

It's too soon for predictions with everything going on.

With the US govt arming Neo Nazis withing the Ukrainian National Army and likely conflict between with Israel and Lebanon.
You are right.


Also i wouldn't trust much of these AI based projections as they are the same ones that predicted Hillary would win.