Stop the madness: what we know for 3rd Q fundraising
Ok, we're all excited, we all want to know how much we contributed--and how much was spent and how much we have compared to everyone else.
Since I'm posting a lot on this and getting PMs and emails and calls on it, let me spell out what we know in one place.
Dr. Paul raised $640k and spent $115k in the first quarter with no debt and $525k cash on hand (figures rounded). Cash minus debt put Dr. Paul sixth out of ten major Republican candidates.
In the second quarter, Dr. Paul raised $2.4 million, spent $540k, and had nearly $2.4 million cash on hand with no debt. Cash minus debt put Dr. Paul third out of ten major Republican candidates behind only Giuliani ($18.3 million) and Romney ($3.2 million) who raised about $5 million online.
In the third quarter, the Paul campaign put out an email that with the original online fundraising campaign they would have raised more than the second quarter: The letter even said "I assure you that we will surpass our total from last quarter. The question is by how much." So, $2.4 million plus what we raised over the half million goal at $700k, puts us safely at $3.1 million this quarter. Beyond that, everything is speculation.
Background: Kent told me personally on Saturday night just after we hit the million dollar mark that they had raised more than last quarter. Ok, we know that, I realize, I'm just trying to lay most everything out. I spoke with Jesse too who has a strategy to maximize the news and get the most bang for the buck--remember all of the MSM attention we got when Dr. Paul leaked some of the info to Stephanopolis?
FEC regulations require quite a bit of accounting and lawyering. Dr. Paul, unlike Romney and Giuliani (and until recently McCain), does not spend a lot of money on staff--he keeps his burn rate very, very low husbanding his resources for later in the campaign when we'll need them for ads, etc., to reach voters and win primaries. This is frustrating now, but a good strategy overall.
Money donated online is relatively easily tabulated. While we did wonders raising money online this past quarter (thanks to all of you!), Dr. Paul historically raises nearly all of his money via direct mail for his Congressional campaigns. I personally got at least three mail solicitations AFTER I maxed out last quarter from rented lists, presumably. Checks are sent to the Lake Jackson office in Texas that is not equiped to deal with operations on this scale. Those checks require a lot more effort to be processed.
Most of the workers at HQ do not have those numbers updated. Those that have combined, updated numbers do not talk casually, much less post such info on websites. Unless you hear it directly from Dr. Paul, Kent, Lew, Jesse, Fernando or Jonathan, accept that anyone else talking probably doesn't know. Don't believe anyone who says they heard from someone anything else. Tell anyone repeating such nonsense to stop hurting the campaign with baseless rumors.
My speculation based on my best knowledge of Dr. Paul and his campaigns: Dr. Paul will report no debt this quarter. Dr. Paul did not spend more than he raised last quarter. He did spend a lot more this past quarter (Ames, new office, more staff, more travel, more fundraisers, more direct mail, etc.) than the previous quarters. Ergo, Dr. Paul will have at least $3.1 million cash minus debt this quarter, probably more than McCain (and all of the second tier), and possibly more than Romney, doubtfully more than Thompson, and certainly less than Giuliani.
Romney: $10 million (with perhaps another $6 to $7 million of his own personal wealth).
Rudy Giuliani raised $9 million, NBC says.
Former Sen. Fred Thompson’s (R-Tenn.) campaign said he raised at least $8 million in the third quarter, not including the $3.5 million he raised in June. A campaign official did not know the breakdown between general and primary funds or how much cash on hand the ex-senator’s campaign has.
Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) campaign on Monday disputed press reports that the senator, who has struggled with fundraising and spending throughout the year, raised $5 million but had $2 million in debt. A McCain campaign official said the reports were inaccurate, and they would release numbers Tuesday or Wednesday.
Tancredo filed for $1.6 million in matching funds. Tancredo raised nearly $2.7 million in the first half.
Huckabee raises $1 million and is not considered a serious contender.
Democrats:
Hillary Clinton raised $27 million of which $22 million can be used in the primary.
Barack Obama raised at least $20 million between July 1 and Sept. 30 with at least $19 million of that dedicated to the primary campaign. Obama outraised Hillary in primary dollars — $74.9 million to $72.6 million.
John Edwards raised about $7 million. Edwards spent $9.8M over the first six months, and is estimated to have spent about $8M more this quarter.
Bill Richardson, in fourth place in most national polls of Democratic voters, raised about $5.2 million in the period, down from $7 million the previous quarter.
Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware raised $1.9 million.
Sen. Chris Dodd's campaign raised 1.5 million dollars in the third quarter of this fundraising cycle bringing the campaign's grand total to 14 million with $4 million cash on hand. The Senator had estimated that he would raise 2-3 million in the third quarter of this fundraising cycle but he's coming up short. That gives him $8.8 million for the year.
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Originally Posted by Ron Paul Fan
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