Situation
The straw poll for Iowa is in 2 months. Bush won this in 2000 with about 8000 votes. This is an unofficial poll but has a huge impact on the country because it happens so early on. Winning the straw poll in Iowa will get Ron Paul media attention, might start establishing him as a front-runner, would get more donations, would establish him as a viable option to the GOP base, would set the tone for other states.
Solution
Get around 10,000 Iowans to go to the straw poll and vote for Dr. Paul. This project has the additional benefit of creating a huge amount of supporters in Iowa. It may be enough to hit critical mass an ensure a win for Iowa in the primaries.
Strategy
Video seems to be the most effective way to create hardcore Ron Paul supporters. I have personally seen a McCain supporter and a Hillary supporter be converted to Ron Paul supporters through video in Iowa. It seems that most people, if they watch enough video of Ron Paul, become supporters. A flyer or something like that will not motivate most people to drive to a straw poll but a video might. So the idea is to make a DVD that is a compilation of Ron Paul videos, founding father quotes, etc. geared towards Iowa. This has the added benefit that it could be adapted for other states and run through the production line again.
There are three goals of the video:
- Get people to the straw poll
- Give them any additional information or instructions that would be helpful such as info about the caucus or the idea of copying the dvd and giving it to friends
- Get contact information for future use in campaign
Estimation
Enough of these videos would need to be made to get 10,000 people to this poll. The following factors need to be taken into account when determining how many DVDs to make:
- Not all people that get the DVD will watch it
- Some people will watch the DVD and not become supporters
- Some DVDs will reach more than one person
- Some people will go to the poll and vote for Ron without ever having seen the DVD
Here is my rough estimate but keep in mind that this is a very rough estimate and can change:
1) DVDs that are watched by one or more people - 1 in 5
2) people that go to the poll - 1 out of every 5 that watch it
3) people that vote for Ron in the poll without seeing DVD - 1 additional person for every 5 that watch the DVD plus 500 people
4) for videos that are watched, the average number of people that watch it - 4
x = number of dvds
(1/5)(4)(1/5)x + (1/5)(4)(1/5)x + 500 = 10,000 people
x = 29,687.5
Things that will affect this estimation:
The amount of people that vote for him outside of the DVD project will depend on what other activities are going on in Iowa, what kind of media coverage he gets here in the next two months and what kind of attitude the regular gop goers have towards him at the time of the poll so the 500 figure I gave could be way off.
The number of people that watch the dvd that have it will be different depending on how the dvd is distributed. If people are picking it up voluntarily at a starbucks or something like that then most will probably watch it. If you are going house to house giving it to the person who answers the door, that might get less people to watch it and if you are just hanging it on people's doorknobs, that will be even less so distribution will affect this factor quite a bit. Labeling will also affect that factor.
It is unknown how many people will be motivated enough to go to the poll but it has been my experience that the people that like Ron Paul get pretty motivated and we are not asking a lot. There are probably certain stunts that the gop or media could pull to screw with these numbers as well.
Deadlines
Here are some tentative deadlines for the 4 main milestones and how much time is allocated to each:
June 22 - have first DVD (20 days from today)
June 29 - have all replication done (approximately 1 week)
July 31 - have all DVDs distributed (about a month)
August 11 - straw poll (about a week and a half free before this for final preparations)
If this schedule seems tight, that's because it is. There is not a lot of time available but I don't think these are impossible deadlines.
Pricing
A professional DVD replication service would obviously have to be used in order to duplicate this volume of DVDs. These are the prices according to proactionmedia.com:
disc label, no case or sleeve - $0.44 per DVD, $13,200 for 30,000
disc label, with plain white paper sleeve - $0.48 per DVD, $14,400 for 30,000
disc label, in plain white paper sleeve - $0.56 per DVD, $16,800 for 30,000
disc label, case with color printing on front and back plus a color insert - $0.73 per DVD, $21,900 for 30,000
Packaging is an important consideration here. If a professional-looking DVD case with images on the front and back, an insert and the whole deal gets twice as many people to watch it, then that is more cost effective than going with the cheapest option of a plain white paper sleeve. The estimation above was done with the dvd case packaging option in mind.
Current Status (as of 2007-06-02)
The Central Iowa RP Campaign group has only had a pre-meeting meeting so far and so not everyone was present. The big meeting, which will be the first one where everyone will be there, is monday. At this meeting, I will present this plan and see if everyone is willing to help with distribution. I imagine they will be glad to help.
In the meantime, I am doing a bit of probing to see if the funding and expertise is there to make this happen.
Several people have already come forward with funding so that is going very well.
I have been building a website which could be used to get people's contact information if a slide was slipped in on the DVD to point people to it. I could have that operational by the end of the month so we are okay on that.
I need someone handy with photoshop to create the cover, insert, and disc label. I could probably do this but it would severely threaten the deadline.
I need at least one video editor but several is preferred. I have been learning how to do this over the past week but if I had to do this all on my own, that would also severely threaten the deadline.
If you fit any of these roles and are willing to help us win the Iowa straw poll, please contact me immediately. Keep in mind that winning Iowa's straw poll will make your state's straw poll much easier
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